Spot on about the insurance. However the IRGC are not collecting tolls, but fee for service,. That service is the safe transit and guidance of the Strait of Hormuz, which can only be had if they use the IRGC traffic lane that runs base Qesh and Larak Island.
The pre war traffic lanes ran through the middle of the strait there was an outbound lane and an inbound lane, apparently, or supposedly, those lanes have been mined.
By the way mining of the lanes is easy. The Gulf of Persia and the Arabian Sea all the way down to Africa is full of fishing vessels called dhow's, these vessesl also lay mines, and you can't tell a fishing vessel from a mine layer, and they could be fishing and mine laying at the same time, and usually are.
There is another lane, but it is risky it parallels the shore and skirts the coast of Oman, however it is hazardous and not deep enough for super tankers which have a draft of 66 ft.
The situation is now complicated, as the SOH is the territorial waters of Oman and Iran, and the two have come to agreement as to fee spiting.
Trump has threatened to wipe out Oman, which would mean attacking a member of the GCC, also an Arab and Muslim state.
Trump has lost the war he started, and is caught in a dilemma, one caused by his friend Bibi.
He is looking for an off ramp, but Bibi won't give him one. Bibi wants him to use ground troops and invade Iran to capture the nuclear material.
This will be a disaster, and the loss of thousands of lives. There will be thousands of weeping widows in Fayetteville, NC.
Iraq was a desert country, flat with nothing but sand, Iran is a mountainous country, with reinforced tunnels and caves, overlooking the cities. And the Iranians have been digging out all of the destroyed missile launch sites.
The only way to get to the nuclear material, or where they think it is, is by a ground invasion, through valleys under the guns of the Artesh,and IRGC or by an airborne assault.
And that would be a disaster worse than the D Day drop on San Mere Eglise, the British Airborne assault, on top of German Panzer regiment in Operation Market Garden, or the Fallshirmjager assault on Crete,or the French Foreign Legion drop on besieged Dien Bien Phu.
And then they would need heavy equipment to clear out the tunnels which the USAF bombed on Feb 28th.
And it is doubtful that many of the C-17's or C-130;s that airdropped men and equipment would survive, as they have to slow down to 130 knots for the airdrop and start their slow down 6 minutes from the drop zone.
Flying at 1,000 to 1,500 ft at 130 Knots that can be shot down by small arms fire,and RPG's, not to mention shoulder fired anti aircraft rockets.
Trump is an idiot,and he put an idiot in charge of the Dept of Defense and selectecd a craven idiot ass kisser as Chairman of the JCS, and the generals and flag officers in charge, that haven't retired after he debased them at that infamous Quantico haranguing, are guilty of all crimes that Trump is directing them to commit.
Whatever ‘the plan’ is, it is failing so far and to the great detriment of the strategic position of the US, regardless of the fact that US oil companies are making a killing.
The insurance companies and the countries will eventually settle with Iran and Oman over strait fees because they have to. That is what never trumpers are pointing to: the fact that there was a war and Iran came out of it, at least up to this point, with even more leverage than before, which amounts to a strategic loss while impoverishing the American consumer. And there are also other consequences that cut deeper, for example Italy’s switch to airbus and the Netherlands blocking the acquisition of the Dutch ID data company by a US company.
All those great insurers and companies have leverage as long as the US economy has leverage. But Trump is hacking away at the load bearing beams, so the next round will involve Chinese insurers and data companies, good luck with that. I cannot say it makes me happy but it is what we have done to ourselves. There is no one else to blame but us.
Trump is also shelving arms sales to Taiwan, running the credit card like there is no tomorrow and behaving in general like a demented orange monkey.
Having spent my life listening to these critiques stoically, the not serious part of me is reaching for the popcorn to watch them collapse along with what sustained them.
I agree with you on the technicalities. However, the overall criticism is that Trump went into war without knowing what he was doing has been the overall criticism. Your thesis is another highlight of this fact.
Spot on about the insurance. However the IRGC are not collecting tolls, but fee for service,. That service is the safe transit and guidance of the Strait of Hormuz, which can only be had if they use the IRGC traffic lane that runs base Qesh and Larak Island.
The pre war traffic lanes ran through the middle of the strait there was an outbound lane and an inbound lane, apparently, or supposedly, those lanes have been mined.
By the way mining of the lanes is easy. The Gulf of Persia and the Arabian Sea all the way down to Africa is full of fishing vessels called dhow's, these vessesl also lay mines, and you can't tell a fishing vessel from a mine layer, and they could be fishing and mine laying at the same time, and usually are.
There is another lane, but it is risky it parallels the shore and skirts the coast of Oman, however it is hazardous and not deep enough for super tankers which have a draft of 66 ft.
The situation is now complicated, as the SOH is the territorial waters of Oman and Iran, and the two have come to agreement as to fee spiting.
Trump has threatened to wipe out Oman, which would mean attacking a member of the GCC, also an Arab and Muslim state.
Trump has lost the war he started, and is caught in a dilemma, one caused by his friend Bibi.
He is looking for an off ramp, but Bibi won't give him one. Bibi wants him to use ground troops and invade Iran to capture the nuclear material.
This will be a disaster, and the loss of thousands of lives. There will be thousands of weeping widows in Fayetteville, NC.
Iraq was a desert country, flat with nothing but sand, Iran is a mountainous country, with reinforced tunnels and caves, overlooking the cities. And the Iranians have been digging out all of the destroyed missile launch sites.
The only way to get to the nuclear material, or where they think it is, is by a ground invasion, through valleys under the guns of the Artesh,and IRGC or by an airborne assault.
And that would be a disaster worse than the D Day drop on San Mere Eglise, the British Airborne assault, on top of German Panzer regiment in Operation Market Garden, or the Fallshirmjager assault on Crete,or the French Foreign Legion drop on besieged Dien Bien Phu.
And then they would need heavy equipment to clear out the tunnels which the USAF bombed on Feb 28th.
And it is doubtful that many of the C-17's or C-130;s that airdropped men and equipment would survive, as they have to slow down to 130 knots for the airdrop and start their slow down 6 minutes from the drop zone.
Flying at 1,000 to 1,500 ft at 130 Knots that can be shot down by small arms fire,and RPG's, not to mention shoulder fired anti aircraft rockets.
Trump is an idiot,and he put an idiot in charge of the Dept of Defense and selectecd a craven idiot ass kisser as Chairman of the JCS, and the generals and flag officers in charge, that haven't retired after he debased them at that infamous Quantico haranguing, are guilty of all crimes that Trump is directing them to commit.
Whatever ‘the plan’ is, it is failing so far and to the great detriment of the strategic position of the US, regardless of the fact that US oil companies are making a killing.
The insurance companies and the countries will eventually settle with Iran and Oman over strait fees because they have to. That is what never trumpers are pointing to: the fact that there was a war and Iran came out of it, at least up to this point, with even more leverage than before, which amounts to a strategic loss while impoverishing the American consumer. And there are also other consequences that cut deeper, for example Italy’s switch to airbus and the Netherlands blocking the acquisition of the Dutch ID data company by a US company.
All those great insurers and companies have leverage as long as the US economy has leverage. But Trump is hacking away at the load bearing beams, so the next round will involve Chinese insurers and data companies, good luck with that. I cannot say it makes me happy but it is what we have done to ourselves. There is no one else to blame but us.
Trump is also shelving arms sales to Taiwan, running the credit card like there is no tomorrow and behaving in general like a demented orange monkey.
Having spent my life listening to these critiques stoically, the not serious part of me is reaching for the popcorn to watch them collapse along with what sustained them.
Good point about Iran having more leverage. The whole thing is about who can bear the most pain. And that is Iran
America and Americans have no tolerance or pain. Iran is united under it's religion and nationalism.
I agree with you on the technicalities. However, the overall criticism is that Trump went into war without knowing what he was doing has been the overall criticism. Your thesis is another highlight of this fact.
Meh.