The Haunting of the 22nd Amendment
When history’s ghosts and modern factionalism make the unthinkable sound normal.
The Conversation Nobody Asked For
There is discussion about a potential Trump 2028 run… disclaimer: this is not a conversation I am particularly interested in, because we have to live in 2025.
However, after interviews with Stephen Bannon, who recently alluded to a plan for a Trump third term, and the effective trolling of the White House as part of its ongoing mockery of the pundit class, this conversation has entered the chat.
We are in a week where strategists are arguing whether Democrats talk too much about marginalized groups without even considering the landscape of propaganda outlets dressed up as news and skillfully gerrymandered districts. It’s a conversation that seems more like a cry of, “Why don’t people just behave like it’s 2008?” rather than, “Wow, a political, media, and fearmongering juggernaut was built to make it almost impossible for a democracy to thrive in its fullness, no matter how many focus groups I do.”
Anyway, the strategists and centrists holding onto yesterday’s center can argue over that, and God bless them. The psychological disruption this moment has caused someone who rose professionally when CD players, iPods, and iPhones were new technology is not something I can understand because I do not carry that baggage. I have the baggage of living through the 2008 financial meltdown and the seeming destruction of any real idea of a post-racial America with a reasonable social safety net.
The Shadow of Trumpism
So with that energy, I ponder the 2028 potential of another Trump. Maybe even another with his last name or political blessing. There is no doubt that Trumpism will leave a mark on America. It will be successful because it will exist on the fumes of all the components of the moderation machine that worked before or in between his presidencies. Still, it will be impactful because it mocks—or speaks to a disdain for—that same machine.
Many pundits speculate that an economic fallout will stop Trump’s train. Not necessarily. Especially if he figures out how to dole patronage to parts of the nation he deems loyal, with the aid of his donors, as long as he turns the economic and diplomatic gears toward their favor. (He already did it once, with tax cuts and tariff games that spooked the markets just enough to thrill the base.)
At the same time, it is not particularly clear that other nations are as reviled by Trumpism as they were in his first term. The current administration has also brought to the table conversations that have long been mishandled by the previous consensus over and over again. Though it may be done offensively and crudely, the conversations about the state of our cities, prescription drug prices, and the way modern trade has hollowed out parts of the nation leave an indelible impact. Especially on people who feel like the highest office is talking about these things in the everyday language they understand.
Institutions in Retreat
Powerful institutions have also sensed that something in the water has changed. Congress, theoretically a check on executive power, has ceded so much ground that it’s practically a memory. Remember, they twice impeached Trump and twice failed to remove him. Even after January 6. Even after attempting to extort a foreign power.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s recent ruling in Trump v. United States granted Trump partial criminal immunity for his “official acts,” including trying to use the DOJ to investigate his election rivals. That’s not speculative fiction. That’s precedent as of 2024.
In that arresting environment, there is an implicit understanding that the power of this particular president not only lies in his martial abilities but also in his cultural pull, which stretches from the amber waves of grain and the mountain peaks of mining country to the beaches of retirement havens and the cul-de-sacs of post-1980s suburbia. Business is also hedging on the power of Trumpism, not because it is right or wrong, but because it is smartly strategic. CEOs don’t think in democracy; they feel in margins. And if you’ve already survived two impeachments, criminal indictments, a failed coup, and an assassination attempt... you’re basically in Babe Ruth territory in the American zeitgeist.
Mythos level.
History’s Echo: FDR and the Third Term Mirage
So, considering all of that, the last time we had an executive move into the rare territory of more than two terms was during a period when the world saw a rise in dictators and, thus, emergencies, leading people to wish for deliberation rather than process. Franklin D. Roosevelt served before the 22nd Amendment, which was ratified in 1951, because of his unprecedented four terms. He was a towering figure to the American public, no doubt. He used the radio like a scalpel, told Wall Street to sit down, threatened the Supreme Court with expansion, and governed through the dual apocalypses of Depression and war. He made the presidency feel like both anchor and rudder.
Trump’s team and enablers are very aware of this historical energy. He jokes about three terms. Then he sells “Trump 2028” hats on his website. Then his base chants “Four More Years” with eerie sincerity. And the thing is, legal scholars, some of them very serious ones, have speculated on whether the 22nd Amendment prohibits someone from being elected twice or from serving twice. (Spoiler: it says “elected,” but let’s not underestimate a good loophole argument in a courtroom stacked with your appointees.)
If a significant chunk of the public demands it, and polls show large swaths of Republicans still believe Trump actually won in 2020, who exactly is going to stop him from running again? A House of Representatives gerrymandered to MAGA majorities? A Senate paralyzed by the filibuster and donor calculus? A Supreme Court with a demonstrated reluctance to act when democratic norms are steamrolled?
America’s Fracture Lines
Factionalism fuels this whole engine. Trumpism survives not just because of policy, but because it gives language to resentment. The cultural, racial, and geographic divides in this country aren’t just cracks anymore; they’re canyons.
Of the 15 most restrictive abortion states, all voted Trump. Most are former Confederate states.
Of the states with the loosest gun laws? Nearly all went red.
Red and blue America aren’t just voting differently. They’re legislating different realities.
In that space, where everything is existential, the idea of a permanent Trump presidency doesn’t sound dystopian to his supporters. It sounds safe. If the other side is evil, then a third term is salvation, not tyranny. That’s how absolute power tiptoes in with a flag, a crowd, and the slow, strategic erosion of anything that used to be called a check or a balance.
The Unthinkable, Now Thinkable
So yes, a Trump term from 2028–2032 is not implausible. Because if powerful institutions won’t enforce the Constitution, if culture is primed for strongperson theater, and if people crave familiar faces in unfamiliar times... well, that’s how myths become monarchies. The 22nd Amendment will be treated less like a law and more like a suggestion. One that only matters if people in power say it does.
However, I still don’t think it’s productive to ponder this topic endlessly. We’re here now. We should be present and enjoy life as it exists in front of us. It’s clear the Reagan–Clinton consensus is a deep, donor-fueled failure, as I’ve written this week. And to be fair, we and they are only human.
So whatever the future holds, it won’t look like anything current voices with large platforms can predict, and who may not have the capacity, psychologically or contractually, to predict.
A Final Breath Before the Next Storm
On that note, tomorrow is Halloween. I’ll try to write about that instead to give us a break from statecraft—the oldest and most complex game ever played.
Happy haunting.
Trump has hats with Trum 2028 displayed on the Resolute Desk, a little think like the 22nd Amendment is not an impediment to a man that ignores the law, and which is supported by SCOTUS.
Bannon sid that they are working on it, meaning keeping him in power, There are a number of ways, besides the Constitution. he controls Congress, and probably will after 2026, so congress can run an end run around the constitution, even renaming he office of the executive, toChief Executive or such..
He has 3 1/2 years to finish Project 2025, that is three and one half years o finish the job of making this a White, Christian, Nationalist dictatorship.
After all, he has a firm control on the police power of the state, he ignores laws and international laws, wages war, kills people on the high seas, has total control of the military (which is also a police force), who is going to stop him? The judiciary, that is a joke, the highest court in the land has elevated him to the status of a demigod.